U.S. PCE inflation forecast at 3.6% vs prior 3.7%, with direct implications for BTC and risk assets before Jackson Hole Fed meeting.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Wednesday through Friday will bring Supreme Court on the Fed, the PCE release, and corporate earnings, setting up a busy trading week. Source: Evan (@StockMKTNewz), Twitter, Jan 18, 2026 https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/2012948997514670274

According to @BullTheoryio, Bitcoin jumped roughly $1,500 on lower-than-expected PCE data before reversing and falling $3,500 within 60 minutes, creating a sharp intraday whipsaw move (source: @BullTheoryio). The move reportedly liquidated about $155 million in long positions in the last hour, highlighting elevated leverage risk during macro data releases (source: @BullTheoryio). The post notes no fresh negative news or sudden FUD around the dump, cautioning traders against relying solely on headlines for positioning (source: @BullTheoryio). The account alleges recurrent price manipulation by a few entities targeting both leveraged longs and shorts, implying the need for tighter risk controls and reduced leverage in event-driven spikes (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @StockMKTNewz, the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report has been released, flagging an immediate macro catalyst for rates, equities, and crypto positioning, source: https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1996958114361344302. The official PCE price index and core PCE are published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; traders should pull the headline and core MoM/YoY prints directly from BEA to calibrate inflation momentum, source: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index. The Federal Reserve targets PCE inflation in its policy framework, making this release pivotal for rate expectations and financial conditions, source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/strategy.htm. To translate the print into implied rate-path probabilities and front-end yield sensitivity, use the CME FedWatch Tool and corresponding Fed funds futures term structure, source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. A hotter-than-expected PCE historically tightens financial conditions and pressures risk assets, while a cooler print tends to ease yields and support beta, with crypto’s correlation to equities elevated per IMF research, source: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks. For trading, watch UST 2Y/10Y, DXY, and BTC, ETH intraday volatility around the release window as macro surprises drive cross-asset flows, sources: BEA release page https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index and Federal Reserve policy framework https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/strategy.htm.

According to @KobeissiLetter, this short holiday week clusters 10 key US macro events: September PPI (Tuesday), September Retail Sales (Tuesday), November Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), October Pending Home Sales (Tuesday), US Q3 2025 GDP (Wednesday), September Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday), September PCE inflation (Wednesday), September New Home Sales (Wednesday), US markets closed for Thanksgiving (Thursday), and a 1 pm ET early close (Friday), source: The Kobeissi Letter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the Thursday closure and Friday early close compress event risk into Tuesday and Wednesday, a schedule crypto traders can use to plan liquidity and volatility management around headline inflation and growth prints, source: The Kobeissi Letter.